MistaFlava's US Open Record: 11-2 (+4.07 Units)
Here is how I went 11-2 on opening day. Using a system that went 21-4 in New Haven last week (regardless of odd value it picked dogs and favs), I have no choice but to make the following plays. This system evaluates players abilities on a certain surface and this system also evaluates players recent achievements and capabilities on this surface. Enjoy. I wish I had used this system instead of losing money all week but ah well, thats how it goes. The breakdown for New Haven was as follows:
ATP New Haven
Round of 48: 5-1
Round of 32: 12-0
Round of 16: 2-2
Quarter-Finals: 2-0
Semi-Finals: 0-1
Final: No Plays
21-4 last week using this system
Tueday, August 28
Wayne Odesnik 1.44 over Danai Udomchoke (3 Units)
I don't know about you guys but I have already noticed a trend of some young American players like Donald Young and John Isner having possible breaking out parties at this tournament. Odesnik could be next in line if he can pull off a win in this match and one of the main reasons I am taking him is because he is peaking on hardcourts and he is going to put it all out there in the morning session. The price seems steep for a guy who has only ever played in two BEST OF FIVE SETS matches in his career and has lost both of them. Both of those losses came in the opening round of this very tournament and although he lost both times, Odesnik has somewhat reached a peak in his career and is ranked as high as he has ever been on tour. A win in this match would only solidify his potential as a TOP 100 player. His recent showings in Montreal and Washington are great indicators that he is ready to make some noise in the opening round as he beat Ivan Ljubicic (#11 player in the world), Adrian Garcia and Juan Martin Del Potro in the main draws of those two tournaments. Udomchoke on the other hand comes into this tournament on a dismal five match hardcourt losing streak as he has not won since TMS Indian Wells back in March and that was against the #1525 ranked player in the world. Yikes. So in the end he has not beat a TOP 200 player on hardcourts since February and has never won an opening round match at the US Open. Give me Odesnik to win this match and keep the american train rolling.
Juan Monaco 1.23 over Edouard Roger-Vasselin (1 Unit)
In what could be a more interesting match than many people think, we are going to be treated with Roland Garros re-match, only difference is that we move to the hardcourts where both players are not as good as they are on clay courts. Monaco swept Vasselin away in three sets in that one and I think he does the exact same thing again today. So if you don't like eating this much chalk, Monaco should have no problems putting him away in straight sets once again. Vasselin is in this tournament by ranking only and he is probably only here because first round losers get a big fat pay check. He has played in only 5 hardcourt matches (3 of them in qualifying tournaments) over the last 12 months and to make things even funnier, he lost four of those. Don't get me wrong, Juan Monaco is not about to come to Flusing Meadows and beat anyone special, but his chances against Roger-Vasselin are almost guaranteed and like I said yesterday, I love taking free money when the opportunity presents itself. Monaco has not had any luck in previous US Open appearances losing all three of his first round matches but those matches were against two players ranked in the TOP 10 at the time and one guy who knew what he was doing on hardcourts. Vasselin is clueless. Monaco showed in Cincinnati a few weeks ago that he can ball on this surface as he forced Rafael Nadal to retire. I think Monaco has an easy time winning this in straight sets based on pure tennis skills only.
Ivo Karlovic 1.74 over Arnaud Clement (3 Units)
If you like betting on trends this match is not for you because if the trend continues from day one, Karlovic is going to struggle and things are going to be tough for him. Im talking about all the players who had decent New Haven showings having problems closing out matches yesterday because of fatigue (Mathieu was the best example). However, Karlovic has had one extra day to rest after losing his semi-final match against Mardy Fish in New Haven and I think the big man comes into this match ready to ball against an older player. If you pit these two against each other exactly one year ago, I think my money would be on Clement but the veteran frenchman has since lost a bit of what he had and I am ready to put some money against him. Since last year's US OPEN, Clement is only 7-10 in 17 hardcourt matches and he has not won more than one match in any hardcourt tournament since reaching the finals of the Washington event in July of 2006. Ivo Karlovic on the other hand has been on the rise on the hardcourts and even though he does not usually do well (or breathe well) in best of five set matches, I think when it comes to endurance, he might actually have the edge here. Karlovic won his first round matches at the US Open in 2003 and 2005 so why not another two step and make it 2007? Clement lost in straight sets to the #179 ranked Jiri Novak in 2006 at this event and I think he goes crashing out in similar fashion this time around. My money is where my mouth is...give me the Doctor.
Dudi Sela 1.60 over Nicolas Lapentti (3 Units)
This is one of the ones I have been eyeing as part of the system. Too many people are going to jump on Lapentti in this one because he is ranked #79 in the world while Dudi Howser is ranked #118. What im looking for here is who is going to have the bigger balls to win a match that is surely going to make it to the fifth set and the answer is Sela. What you have to know about Sela is that although this is only his third appearance in the main draw of a grand slam event, he did look pretty damn good at times against Roger Federer at Roland Garros back in 2005 and he did beat Paradorn Srichaphan at the Australian Open earlier this year before giving Marat Safin the ride of his life in the second round. But apart from those matches, Sela has experience in long matches because he plays for team Israel in the Davis Cup and he just recently beat Andreas Seppi and Gilles Muller in best of five set matches. Nicolas Lapentti is another one of the guys I believe is here to collect some paycheck money and not play tennis. I say that because since January he has played in only one hardcourt tournament and that was a first round of qualies loss to Julien Benneteau in Cincinnati. Lapentti has not been in form to do anything else and that one hardcourt match is not going to be enough to get him through the mental toughness of a first round match, despite his previous experience in matches like this one. I think Dudi Sela has the potential to give some guys a good run for their money and at this price is a great option for middle of the board favorites in the first round. I am taking him to the bank with this...HA HA HAAAA HAAAAA.
Samuel Querrey 1.28 over Stefan Koubek (1 Unit)
Sure the odds suck for a guy like Querrey and sure its a big risk for him playing against an experienced veteran that could have a few tricks hidden up his sleeve but the bottom line is here that Sam is the kind of player you want to back in a match like this. Koubek is a little pest who runs around and tries to wreak havoc on other players serve but the problem here is that Querrey serves way to hard for the older man and its going to be a real problem once this match progresses into the late stages. In the last 12 months, Koubek has faced players who are considered to have big serves and against those four players he went 1-3, beating only Martin Verkerk because the other old man retired. Querrey has some booming serves that are way too powerful for this old guy to keep up and although the young American (notice the theme of young americans again?) does make stupid mistakes along the way, he is ultimately the better suited player to win this match. In his last two US Open appearances, Koubek has lost in the first round both times in 2005 and 2006 and has won only one set along the way. So tell me how he is going to win more than that one set now that he has aged another year and is on an 0-7 losing streak on hardcourts? He has not won on this surface since beating Dick Norman back in January in a challenger event. Sure he is due but Querrey is too young and powerful and this match should not take long.
Jurgen Melzer 1.24 over Diego Hartfield (1 Unit)
The odds are really shitty once again for a player like Melzer to make us sweat this one out but I started this week with a big bank roll telling myself that since its a proven system, I am going to stick with it and take all the plays it spits out and see what happens. These two players have never met but they do come from very different backgrounds and Hartfield is probably going to give the lefty a nice run for his money. Neither player has played many matches this season on the hardcourts as Melzer has managed only 19 matches on this surface and Hartfield has managed only 10 matches on this surface in the last 12 months. So once again we have two guy playing for a nice paycheck and a chance to make the second round where the paycheck is a lot bigger. The last time Diego Hartfield stepped foot on a hardcourt was all the way back in January so this is not like a break coming off the clay court season, this is like a hibernation of a certain surface. Its going to be very hard for the Argentinian to come back to this surface after so much time off and even thougher against a lefty who has already played in this tournamen five times in his career and won three of the five first round matches he played in. Melzer is coming off two impressive wins in Cincinnati as his warmup for this tournament as he beat Ancic and Karlovic and I don't think the very rusty Hartfield is going to be much of a challenge for the usually very sketchy Jurgen Melzer. Austrian for me.
Thomas Johansson 1.41 over Nicolas Massu (3 Units)
If there is one thing I have learned betting tennis is that some players are out of shape and out of form and some players can never be trusted because they always mess things up. Well Massu is definitely one of those guys who cannot be trusted and I say that because of the numerous times I have backed only to have him completely mess up a match and go on to lose. Johansson has been a good fade most of the year but his recent form suggests he is back in business and ready to make one last run at winning an ATP tour tournament with the indoor season coming up. For those who don't remember he was involved in an epic first round match against Sebastien Grosjean last year, losing in five sets after fighting back from being two sets down. Prior to that last, Johansson had been 4-0 in his last four US Open first round matches and I think with the way he has played lately, Johanssson is going to continue to be the better player than Massu on the hardcourts. The Chilean is 5-7 over the last year or so on the hardcourts having only played 12 matches and having only played well in a Challenger event. Johansson on the other hand is taking his hardcourt season every seriously and I suspect it was in hopes of doing well at this tournament because he beat Starace and Vliegen in New Haven last week and won the Binghamton Challeneger event earlier in the month. This match could be another one of those epic ones but in the end, Johansson is much better on hardcourts and he is going to show that his recent good form was not a fluke.
Juan Martin Del Potro 1.39 over Nicolas Mahut (1 Unit)
I don't have to look at any stats for this one but let me tell you right away that if Juan Martin Del Potro can get his game together and if he can get the right coaching to coach those powerful tools of his, he can be something more than just another TOP 50 player. When you compare these two players in terms of abilities and game accordance on this type of surface, Del Potro is finally turning into the player we know he can be while Mahut is not well suited to beat this player from another level. Del Potro has played pretty much the entire US Open series on the hardcourts leading up to this tournament and he has looked good doing it. Over the last 12 months, Del Potro has won 23 of his 38 matches played on hardcourts and his Round of 16 run in Cincinnati was pretty damn impressive. Mahut on the other hand has played in only 16 hardcourt matches over the last year or so and has won only 5 of those matches. He has not won on this surface since way back in March when he beat Marat Safin at TMS Indian Wells but his form has not been the same since the beginning of this hardcourt season and Mahut has now lost five straight matches on the surface. When Del Potro lost to Falla in the first round last year he was ranked #118 and was a kid still growing up. Well now that he has won these matches in recent weeks, I think he's ready to take home his first US Open win as the #59 player in the world.
Radek Stepanek 1.08 over Carlos Berlocq (1 Unit)
With all the private investigators and with all eyes on the gambling portion of the US Open, Stepanek is going to have to pass on the great chance to tank this match and make some big time money but that shouldnt be a problem because the way I see it is that if he cleanly goes through to the next round, he has a good chance to earn a nice paycheck with some rather easy opponents. I actually want to laugh really hard when I think that Carlos Berlocq has played in only one hardcourt match over the last 12 months and that was a big fat loss to Marc Gicquel in New Haven last week. Berlocq doesn't belong on any other surface but the clay courts and I think most of you are all about to find that out. Radek has not had the best of luck at the US Open in past years but this is by far the easiest opponent he is going to see in his career at Flushing Meadows and judging by the way he has played, there should be no problem winning this match. Radek looked pretty damn good in TMS Montreal a few weeks back when he beat guys like Davydenko, Haas, Gonzalez and Bjorkman and something tells me that with the draw he has now, he could be making some serious noise in the very near future at this tournament. I know his head is not always where its supposed to be at but this match is going to be a no contest.
Ivan Ljubicic 1.33 over Kristof Vliegen (1 Unit)
A lot of you guys are going for the upset here but I can't say that I agree with any of you. I just don't see why you guys are going all crazy for this Belgian kid who once in a while decides he wants to run a set of upsets but the rest of the time is just another ordinary player on the tour. I mean lets be honest with ourselves here, Vliegen has played in only 15 hardcourt matches since this very same time last year and out of those 15 matches, he has won only five of them. He has actually not won a hardcourt tournament main draw match since early January when he beat Nicolas Almagro in ATP Auckland and has since gone on an 0-8 dry run on the hardcourts of the tennis world. So you guys picking the upset and dropping some hard earned cash on a guy who has not won since January on this surface? Wow...thats beyond me why people would do that. I know Ivan Ljubicic is not what he used to be but this match should be quite easy for him seeing how he has won 16 of the 25 hardcourt matches he has been in over the last 12 months and that includes some nice runs in Miami and Indians Wells. Despite his poor form since coming over from Europe, Ljubicic is looking to do a lot better than he did last year in the first round of this tournament where he lost in straight sets. Yeah you can say this play is risky but in the end, Vliegen is just not someone you can trust on hardcourts and had this been basically anyone else, I woulda been on it like panties on a non-whore. I'll take Ljuboshubobobo in the first round.
Fabrice Santoro 1.36 over Albert Montanes (1 Unit)
Yeah I know you're getting sick and tired of reading about the amount of favorites my system has picked this week but patience is a virtue and if you wait things out, my system is going to pick a lot of underdog winners in the next few rounds. Believe me or not, I am a big fan of the way Fabrice Santoro has presented himself on the hardcourts the last 12 months. Despite winning only 9 of his 16 hardcourt matches, Santoro has looked good at times earlier this year and I think he is made for matches like this one. The french magician has won his first round match at the US Open in three of the last four years and there is no reason to believe he is going to blow that chance against a guy who shoulda stayed on the clat courts. Montanes come into this tourmament having won only 1 of his 6 career US Open matches and that was back in 2005 when he beat Victor Hanescu. Montanes has been playing on hardcourts forr a few weeks now but I can't say that he has had much success because he is 2-6 in his last 8 hardcourt matches and he has not really beat anyone of any significance. This is another case of a guy who is here to grab some free cash just for showing up and I don't think he will go all out to win this match and make it to the next round. Santoro is a good player and I like his chances to win this match at a very shitty price. Lets get this match going and lets make some cash here with the free money. ABRA CADABRA!
Xavier Malisse 1.66 over Kristian Pless (3 Units)
Finally we are back in range of my bigger unit plays with the right kind of price and I could not like this matchup anymore than the system does. Malisse comes into this match having not stepped foot on any kind of court since we last saw him in Memphis back in February. He has been out ever since that time with what they say is a wrist injury. Although I hate backing players when they come back from injury because you dont know what to expect, I just can't pass up these odds seeing how Malisse, hurt or not, is still a much better player than Pless. The lifetime challenger player is absolute garbage when it comes to playing on hardcourts as he is 1-10 in his last 11 matches on this surface which means he has won only one match since the first week of January where he won another one in Chennai. So basically the entire time Malisse has been out with the injury, this chump Pless has been losing matches against a bunch of nobodies which is why I am saying that it wont take much from Malisse to win the match. Pless has surprisingly won all four of his career opening round matches at the US Open which may concern some in this case but in the end Pless is nowhere near in the shape he used to be and he has become somewhat of a joke on tour. Malisse has shown over the years that he loves to play at Flushing Meadows and although he is not 100%, I think his desire to comeback and the backing of the small crowd are going to be enough for him to pull this off the hard way. Expect him to struggle early but recover late.
David Ferrer 1.21 over Florian Mayer (1 Unit)
The list of heavy faves continues for my bad boy system but thats okay because I enjoy following these matches and watching some of these players play. David Ferrer has always been one of my favorite guys to bet on because he is always fighting like a crazy cabron and he is always making things happen when you think all hope is gone. These two have actually met three times in the past and Florian Mayer does have the 2-1 edge but all three matches were played on the clay surface and now we move to hardcourts where Ferrer is surprsingly more comfortable and capable if you ask me. Mayer is a very capable player when it comes to beating favs that show up a bit lazy and unwilling to give any kind of effort but I dont think Ferrer is going to show up like this today. The spaniard has won 20 of his 28 hardcourt matches over the last year or so and I like I said before, I am a big fan of the way he fights for points and refuses to go away. Ferrer has been to the Round of 32 in each of the last two US Opens but he can't seem to get over the hump and this might just be the year. Mayer on the other hand has won in the first round here in two of his three appearances but those matches were against Saretta and Koubek and let me tell you that Ferrer is a couple of notches better than those clowns. I'll take another heavy favorite and collect some free money.
David Nalbandian 1.13 over Ivan Navarro-Pastor (1 Unit)
I think Fat Dave comes into this tournament with a price tag not worth touching but I am sticking to my guns of betting on all the matches that get spit out of this thing and this is one of them. These two players met earlier this year at the French Open where Nalbandian had no problems sending this clown home with a straight sets victory. I can't promise things are going to come as easily in this one because they probably won't but at the same time I think Nalbandian is still a decent player who can inflict damage and this opponent should not be tough for him. Pastor is another one of those guys only here to collect some first round money regardless of their opponent and the proof in that lies with the fact that he has played in only three hardcourt matches the last 12 months. He has only ever step foot on these Flushing Meadows courts once in his career and that was in 2004 when he lost in the first round of qualies. Nalbandian is certainly not going to duplicate his run of 2005 where he made the quarter-finals of this event but I do think he has a bit of has left in his tank. He did some good things in Montreal despite losing to Carlos Moya in Cincinnati the next week and losing to Djokovic was not that big of a deal anyways. We are talking about him going up against an opponent who has no clue what he is doing on the hardcourts. Nalby made the fourth round of the Aussie Open earlier this year and I think he can make another small run in this one.
Agustin Calleri 1.54 over Andreas Seppi (3 Units)
We are finally getting some good odds for a player that should have no problems beating his opponent and this is where I am really looking to cash in on my bets. Calleri comes into this tournament having found his big time serve again which couldn't come at a better time seeing how he is going to have some tough opponents in this tournament. Calleri blew three match points and eventually lost to James Blake (the eventual champion) in New Haven last week but I think he has had enough time to recover from that disaster and come back strong in this event. Seppi comes into this tournament with a decent record on hardcourts over the last year or so, winning 18 of his 30 matches but you have to keep in mind that a lot of those were Challenger events and a lot of those were qualifying tournament matches. Seppi has lost each of his first round matches the last two years at the Open and there is no reason for me to believe that he can be a better player for five sets against Calleri who has shown good form. Well Calleri is not exactly in great shape having lost 5 of his last 6 hardcourt matches but I think his style is going to overwhel the young Italian and I think his experience on big points is going to make a big difference here. We are going to see both players mess up quite a bit but in the end, Calleri is the better hardcourt player and he should come out on top.
Andy Roddick over Justin Gimelstob 1.03
Well no sense explaining this one too much because the odds are ridiculous but don't forget that I am taking all of these for tracking purposes and to show the effectiveness of this system. These two guys have met twice in the past and although its nice to have an all American matchup for the night cap and to keep the McEnroe's of the world happy, there is just no chance of this match even being close. In their two career meetings, Andy Roddick has won all five sets and none of them have been close. Gimelstob is in horrendous form right now having played in only six hardcourt matches over the last 12 months and having won only one of those matches. He has been destroyed by pretty much every opponent he has faced. Gimelstob shockingly won a first round match here last year but he is not about to do it against the sentimental favorite of this tournament Roddick. A-Rod comes into the tournament with revenge on his mind after losing in the finals to King Roger last year and judging by some of these things he has said, I think he can run his mouth to the bank in this tournament. He looked great in Indianapolis and Washington, struggled a bit in Montreal and was too tired to win matches in Cincinnati but he has been resting every since and now is his time to bring home the bacon.
RECAP:
Wayne Odesnik 1.44 over Danai Udomchoke
Juan Monaco 1.23 over Edouard Roger-Vasselin
Ivo Karlovic 1.74 over Arnaud Clement
Dudi Sela 1.60 over Nicolas Lapentti
Samuel Querrey 1.28 over Stefan Koubek
Jurgen Melzer 1.24 over Diego Hartfield
Thomas Johansson 1.41 over Nicolas Massu
Juan Martin Del Potro 1.39 over Nicolas Mahut
Radek Stepanek 1.08 over Carlos Berlocq
Ivan Ljubicic 1.33 over Kristof Vliegen
Fabrice Santoro 1.36 over Albert Montanes
Xavier Malisse 1.66 over Kristian Pless
David Ferrer 1.21 over Florian Mayer
David Nalbandian 1.13 over Ivan Navarro-Pastor
Agustin Calleri 1.54 over Andreas Seppi
Andy Roddick over Justin Gimelstob
Don't forget that I am posting all of these for tracking purposes and to show the accuray of this new system. Lets see how things go today.
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Here is how I went 11-2 on opening day. Using a system that went 21-4 in New Haven last week (regardless of odd value it picked dogs and favs), I have no choice but to make the following plays. This system evaluates players abilities on a certain surface and this system also evaluates players recent achievements and capabilities on this surface. Enjoy. I wish I had used this system instead of losing money all week but ah well, thats how it goes. The breakdown for New Haven was as follows:
ATP New Haven
Round of 48: 5-1
Round of 32: 12-0
Round of 16: 2-2
Quarter-Finals: 2-0
Semi-Finals: 0-1
Final: No Plays
21-4 last week using this system
Tueday, August 28
Wayne Odesnik 1.44 over Danai Udomchoke (3 Units)
I don't know about you guys but I have already noticed a trend of some young American players like Donald Young and John Isner having possible breaking out parties at this tournament. Odesnik could be next in line if he can pull off a win in this match and one of the main reasons I am taking him is because he is peaking on hardcourts and he is going to put it all out there in the morning session. The price seems steep for a guy who has only ever played in two BEST OF FIVE SETS matches in his career and has lost both of them. Both of those losses came in the opening round of this very tournament and although he lost both times, Odesnik has somewhat reached a peak in his career and is ranked as high as he has ever been on tour. A win in this match would only solidify his potential as a TOP 100 player. His recent showings in Montreal and Washington are great indicators that he is ready to make some noise in the opening round as he beat Ivan Ljubicic (#11 player in the world), Adrian Garcia and Juan Martin Del Potro in the main draws of those two tournaments. Udomchoke on the other hand comes into this tournament on a dismal five match hardcourt losing streak as he has not won since TMS Indian Wells back in March and that was against the #1525 ranked player in the world. Yikes. So in the end he has not beat a TOP 200 player on hardcourts since February and has never won an opening round match at the US Open. Give me Odesnik to win this match and keep the american train rolling.
Juan Monaco 1.23 over Edouard Roger-Vasselin (1 Unit)
In what could be a more interesting match than many people think, we are going to be treated with Roland Garros re-match, only difference is that we move to the hardcourts where both players are not as good as they are on clay courts. Monaco swept Vasselin away in three sets in that one and I think he does the exact same thing again today. So if you don't like eating this much chalk, Monaco should have no problems putting him away in straight sets once again. Vasselin is in this tournament by ranking only and he is probably only here because first round losers get a big fat pay check. He has played in only 5 hardcourt matches (3 of them in qualifying tournaments) over the last 12 months and to make things even funnier, he lost four of those. Don't get me wrong, Juan Monaco is not about to come to Flusing Meadows and beat anyone special, but his chances against Roger-Vasselin are almost guaranteed and like I said yesterday, I love taking free money when the opportunity presents itself. Monaco has not had any luck in previous US Open appearances losing all three of his first round matches but those matches were against two players ranked in the TOP 10 at the time and one guy who knew what he was doing on hardcourts. Vasselin is clueless. Monaco showed in Cincinnati a few weeks ago that he can ball on this surface as he forced Rafael Nadal to retire. I think Monaco has an easy time winning this in straight sets based on pure tennis skills only.
Ivo Karlovic 1.74 over Arnaud Clement (3 Units)
If you like betting on trends this match is not for you because if the trend continues from day one, Karlovic is going to struggle and things are going to be tough for him. Im talking about all the players who had decent New Haven showings having problems closing out matches yesterday because of fatigue (Mathieu was the best example). However, Karlovic has had one extra day to rest after losing his semi-final match against Mardy Fish in New Haven and I think the big man comes into this match ready to ball against an older player. If you pit these two against each other exactly one year ago, I think my money would be on Clement but the veteran frenchman has since lost a bit of what he had and I am ready to put some money against him. Since last year's US OPEN, Clement is only 7-10 in 17 hardcourt matches and he has not won more than one match in any hardcourt tournament since reaching the finals of the Washington event in July of 2006. Ivo Karlovic on the other hand has been on the rise on the hardcourts and even though he does not usually do well (or breathe well) in best of five set matches, I think when it comes to endurance, he might actually have the edge here. Karlovic won his first round matches at the US Open in 2003 and 2005 so why not another two step and make it 2007? Clement lost in straight sets to the #179 ranked Jiri Novak in 2006 at this event and I think he goes crashing out in similar fashion this time around. My money is where my mouth is...give me the Doctor.
Dudi Sela 1.60 over Nicolas Lapentti (3 Units)
This is one of the ones I have been eyeing as part of the system. Too many people are going to jump on Lapentti in this one because he is ranked #79 in the world while Dudi Howser is ranked #118. What im looking for here is who is going to have the bigger balls to win a match that is surely going to make it to the fifth set and the answer is Sela. What you have to know about Sela is that although this is only his third appearance in the main draw of a grand slam event, he did look pretty damn good at times against Roger Federer at Roland Garros back in 2005 and he did beat Paradorn Srichaphan at the Australian Open earlier this year before giving Marat Safin the ride of his life in the second round. But apart from those matches, Sela has experience in long matches because he plays for team Israel in the Davis Cup and he just recently beat Andreas Seppi and Gilles Muller in best of five set matches. Nicolas Lapentti is another one of the guys I believe is here to collect some paycheck money and not play tennis. I say that because since January he has played in only one hardcourt tournament and that was a first round of qualies loss to Julien Benneteau in Cincinnati. Lapentti has not been in form to do anything else and that one hardcourt match is not going to be enough to get him through the mental toughness of a first round match, despite his previous experience in matches like this one. I think Dudi Sela has the potential to give some guys a good run for their money and at this price is a great option for middle of the board favorites in the first round. I am taking him to the bank with this...HA HA HAAAA HAAAAA.
Samuel Querrey 1.28 over Stefan Koubek (1 Unit)
Sure the odds suck for a guy like Querrey and sure its a big risk for him playing against an experienced veteran that could have a few tricks hidden up his sleeve but the bottom line is here that Sam is the kind of player you want to back in a match like this. Koubek is a little pest who runs around and tries to wreak havoc on other players serve but the problem here is that Querrey serves way to hard for the older man and its going to be a real problem once this match progresses into the late stages. In the last 12 months, Koubek has faced players who are considered to have big serves and against those four players he went 1-3, beating only Martin Verkerk because the other old man retired. Querrey has some booming serves that are way too powerful for this old guy to keep up and although the young American (notice the theme of young americans again?) does make stupid mistakes along the way, he is ultimately the better suited player to win this match. In his last two US Open appearances, Koubek has lost in the first round both times in 2005 and 2006 and has won only one set along the way. So tell me how he is going to win more than that one set now that he has aged another year and is on an 0-7 losing streak on hardcourts? He has not won on this surface since beating Dick Norman back in January in a challenger event. Sure he is due but Querrey is too young and powerful and this match should not take long.
Jurgen Melzer 1.24 over Diego Hartfield (1 Unit)
The odds are really shitty once again for a player like Melzer to make us sweat this one out but I started this week with a big bank roll telling myself that since its a proven system, I am going to stick with it and take all the plays it spits out and see what happens. These two players have never met but they do come from very different backgrounds and Hartfield is probably going to give the lefty a nice run for his money. Neither player has played many matches this season on the hardcourts as Melzer has managed only 19 matches on this surface and Hartfield has managed only 10 matches on this surface in the last 12 months. So once again we have two guy playing for a nice paycheck and a chance to make the second round where the paycheck is a lot bigger. The last time Diego Hartfield stepped foot on a hardcourt was all the way back in January so this is not like a break coming off the clay court season, this is like a hibernation of a certain surface. Its going to be very hard for the Argentinian to come back to this surface after so much time off and even thougher against a lefty who has already played in this tournamen five times in his career and won three of the five first round matches he played in. Melzer is coming off two impressive wins in Cincinnati as his warmup for this tournament as he beat Ancic and Karlovic and I don't think the very rusty Hartfield is going to be much of a challenge for the usually very sketchy Jurgen Melzer. Austrian for me.
Thomas Johansson 1.41 over Nicolas Massu (3 Units)
If there is one thing I have learned betting tennis is that some players are out of shape and out of form and some players can never be trusted because they always mess things up. Well Massu is definitely one of those guys who cannot be trusted and I say that because of the numerous times I have backed only to have him completely mess up a match and go on to lose. Johansson has been a good fade most of the year but his recent form suggests he is back in business and ready to make one last run at winning an ATP tour tournament with the indoor season coming up. For those who don't remember he was involved in an epic first round match against Sebastien Grosjean last year, losing in five sets after fighting back from being two sets down. Prior to that last, Johansson had been 4-0 in his last four US Open first round matches and I think with the way he has played lately, Johanssson is going to continue to be the better player than Massu on the hardcourts. The Chilean is 5-7 over the last year or so on the hardcourts having only played 12 matches and having only played well in a Challenger event. Johansson on the other hand is taking his hardcourt season every seriously and I suspect it was in hopes of doing well at this tournament because he beat Starace and Vliegen in New Haven last week and won the Binghamton Challeneger event earlier in the month. This match could be another one of those epic ones but in the end, Johansson is much better on hardcourts and he is going to show that his recent good form was not a fluke.
Juan Martin Del Potro 1.39 over Nicolas Mahut (1 Unit)
I don't have to look at any stats for this one but let me tell you right away that if Juan Martin Del Potro can get his game together and if he can get the right coaching to coach those powerful tools of his, he can be something more than just another TOP 50 player. When you compare these two players in terms of abilities and game accordance on this type of surface, Del Potro is finally turning into the player we know he can be while Mahut is not well suited to beat this player from another level. Del Potro has played pretty much the entire US Open series on the hardcourts leading up to this tournament and he has looked good doing it. Over the last 12 months, Del Potro has won 23 of his 38 matches played on hardcourts and his Round of 16 run in Cincinnati was pretty damn impressive. Mahut on the other hand has played in only 16 hardcourt matches over the last year or so and has won only 5 of those matches. He has not won on this surface since way back in March when he beat Marat Safin at TMS Indian Wells but his form has not been the same since the beginning of this hardcourt season and Mahut has now lost five straight matches on the surface. When Del Potro lost to Falla in the first round last year he was ranked #118 and was a kid still growing up. Well now that he has won these matches in recent weeks, I think he's ready to take home his first US Open win as the #59 player in the world.
Radek Stepanek 1.08 over Carlos Berlocq (1 Unit)
With all the private investigators and with all eyes on the gambling portion of the US Open, Stepanek is going to have to pass on the great chance to tank this match and make some big time money but that shouldnt be a problem because the way I see it is that if he cleanly goes through to the next round, he has a good chance to earn a nice paycheck with some rather easy opponents. I actually want to laugh really hard when I think that Carlos Berlocq has played in only one hardcourt match over the last 12 months and that was a big fat loss to Marc Gicquel in New Haven last week. Berlocq doesn't belong on any other surface but the clay courts and I think most of you are all about to find that out. Radek has not had the best of luck at the US Open in past years but this is by far the easiest opponent he is going to see in his career at Flushing Meadows and judging by the way he has played, there should be no problem winning this match. Radek looked pretty damn good in TMS Montreal a few weeks back when he beat guys like Davydenko, Haas, Gonzalez and Bjorkman and something tells me that with the draw he has now, he could be making some serious noise in the very near future at this tournament. I know his head is not always where its supposed to be at but this match is going to be a no contest.
Ivan Ljubicic 1.33 over Kristof Vliegen (1 Unit)
A lot of you guys are going for the upset here but I can't say that I agree with any of you. I just don't see why you guys are going all crazy for this Belgian kid who once in a while decides he wants to run a set of upsets but the rest of the time is just another ordinary player on the tour. I mean lets be honest with ourselves here, Vliegen has played in only 15 hardcourt matches since this very same time last year and out of those 15 matches, he has won only five of them. He has actually not won a hardcourt tournament main draw match since early January when he beat Nicolas Almagro in ATP Auckland and has since gone on an 0-8 dry run on the hardcourts of the tennis world. So you guys picking the upset and dropping some hard earned cash on a guy who has not won since January on this surface? Wow...thats beyond me why people would do that. I know Ivan Ljubicic is not what he used to be but this match should be quite easy for him seeing how he has won 16 of the 25 hardcourt matches he has been in over the last 12 months and that includes some nice runs in Miami and Indians Wells. Despite his poor form since coming over from Europe, Ljubicic is looking to do a lot better than he did last year in the first round of this tournament where he lost in straight sets. Yeah you can say this play is risky but in the end, Vliegen is just not someone you can trust on hardcourts and had this been basically anyone else, I woulda been on it like panties on a non-whore. I'll take Ljuboshubobobo in the first round.
Fabrice Santoro 1.36 over Albert Montanes (1 Unit)
Yeah I know you're getting sick and tired of reading about the amount of favorites my system has picked this week but patience is a virtue and if you wait things out, my system is going to pick a lot of underdog winners in the next few rounds. Believe me or not, I am a big fan of the way Fabrice Santoro has presented himself on the hardcourts the last 12 months. Despite winning only 9 of his 16 hardcourt matches, Santoro has looked good at times earlier this year and I think he is made for matches like this one. The french magician has won his first round match at the US Open in three of the last four years and there is no reason to believe he is going to blow that chance against a guy who shoulda stayed on the clat courts. Montanes come into this tourmament having won only 1 of his 6 career US Open matches and that was back in 2005 when he beat Victor Hanescu. Montanes has been playing on hardcourts forr a few weeks now but I can't say that he has had much success because he is 2-6 in his last 8 hardcourt matches and he has not really beat anyone of any significance. This is another case of a guy who is here to grab some free cash just for showing up and I don't think he will go all out to win this match and make it to the next round. Santoro is a good player and I like his chances to win this match at a very shitty price. Lets get this match going and lets make some cash here with the free money. ABRA CADABRA!
Xavier Malisse 1.66 over Kristian Pless (3 Units)
Finally we are back in range of my bigger unit plays with the right kind of price and I could not like this matchup anymore than the system does. Malisse comes into this match having not stepped foot on any kind of court since we last saw him in Memphis back in February. He has been out ever since that time with what they say is a wrist injury. Although I hate backing players when they come back from injury because you dont know what to expect, I just can't pass up these odds seeing how Malisse, hurt or not, is still a much better player than Pless. The lifetime challenger player is absolute garbage when it comes to playing on hardcourts as he is 1-10 in his last 11 matches on this surface which means he has won only one match since the first week of January where he won another one in Chennai. So basically the entire time Malisse has been out with the injury, this chump Pless has been losing matches against a bunch of nobodies which is why I am saying that it wont take much from Malisse to win the match. Pless has surprisingly won all four of his career opening round matches at the US Open which may concern some in this case but in the end Pless is nowhere near in the shape he used to be and he has become somewhat of a joke on tour. Malisse has shown over the years that he loves to play at Flushing Meadows and although he is not 100%, I think his desire to comeback and the backing of the small crowd are going to be enough for him to pull this off the hard way. Expect him to struggle early but recover late.
David Ferrer 1.21 over Florian Mayer (1 Unit)
The list of heavy faves continues for my bad boy system but thats okay because I enjoy following these matches and watching some of these players play. David Ferrer has always been one of my favorite guys to bet on because he is always fighting like a crazy cabron and he is always making things happen when you think all hope is gone. These two have actually met three times in the past and Florian Mayer does have the 2-1 edge but all three matches were played on the clay surface and now we move to hardcourts where Ferrer is surprsingly more comfortable and capable if you ask me. Mayer is a very capable player when it comes to beating favs that show up a bit lazy and unwilling to give any kind of effort but I dont think Ferrer is going to show up like this today. The spaniard has won 20 of his 28 hardcourt matches over the last year or so and I like I said before, I am a big fan of the way he fights for points and refuses to go away. Ferrer has been to the Round of 32 in each of the last two US Opens but he can't seem to get over the hump and this might just be the year. Mayer on the other hand has won in the first round here in two of his three appearances but those matches were against Saretta and Koubek and let me tell you that Ferrer is a couple of notches better than those clowns. I'll take another heavy favorite and collect some free money.
David Nalbandian 1.13 over Ivan Navarro-Pastor (1 Unit)
I think Fat Dave comes into this tournament with a price tag not worth touching but I am sticking to my guns of betting on all the matches that get spit out of this thing and this is one of them. These two players met earlier this year at the French Open where Nalbandian had no problems sending this clown home with a straight sets victory. I can't promise things are going to come as easily in this one because they probably won't but at the same time I think Nalbandian is still a decent player who can inflict damage and this opponent should not be tough for him. Pastor is another one of those guys only here to collect some first round money regardless of their opponent and the proof in that lies with the fact that he has played in only three hardcourt matches the last 12 months. He has only ever step foot on these Flushing Meadows courts once in his career and that was in 2004 when he lost in the first round of qualies. Nalbandian is certainly not going to duplicate his run of 2005 where he made the quarter-finals of this event but I do think he has a bit of has left in his tank. He did some good things in Montreal despite losing to Carlos Moya in Cincinnati the next week and losing to Djokovic was not that big of a deal anyways. We are talking about him going up against an opponent who has no clue what he is doing on the hardcourts. Nalby made the fourth round of the Aussie Open earlier this year and I think he can make another small run in this one.
Agustin Calleri 1.54 over Andreas Seppi (3 Units)
We are finally getting some good odds for a player that should have no problems beating his opponent and this is where I am really looking to cash in on my bets. Calleri comes into this tournament having found his big time serve again which couldn't come at a better time seeing how he is going to have some tough opponents in this tournament. Calleri blew three match points and eventually lost to James Blake (the eventual champion) in New Haven last week but I think he has had enough time to recover from that disaster and come back strong in this event. Seppi comes into this tournament with a decent record on hardcourts over the last year or so, winning 18 of his 30 matches but you have to keep in mind that a lot of those were Challenger events and a lot of those were qualifying tournament matches. Seppi has lost each of his first round matches the last two years at the Open and there is no reason for me to believe that he can be a better player for five sets against Calleri who has shown good form. Well Calleri is not exactly in great shape having lost 5 of his last 6 hardcourt matches but I think his style is going to overwhel the young Italian and I think his experience on big points is going to make a big difference here. We are going to see both players mess up quite a bit but in the end, Calleri is the better hardcourt player and he should come out on top.
Andy Roddick over Justin Gimelstob 1.03
Well no sense explaining this one too much because the odds are ridiculous but don't forget that I am taking all of these for tracking purposes and to show the effectiveness of this system. These two guys have met twice in the past and although its nice to have an all American matchup for the night cap and to keep the McEnroe's of the world happy, there is just no chance of this match even being close. In their two career meetings, Andy Roddick has won all five sets and none of them have been close. Gimelstob is in horrendous form right now having played in only six hardcourt matches over the last 12 months and having won only one of those matches. He has been destroyed by pretty much every opponent he has faced. Gimelstob shockingly won a first round match here last year but he is not about to do it against the sentimental favorite of this tournament Roddick. A-Rod comes into the tournament with revenge on his mind after losing in the finals to King Roger last year and judging by some of these things he has said, I think he can run his mouth to the bank in this tournament. He looked great in Indianapolis and Washington, struggled a bit in Montreal and was too tired to win matches in Cincinnati but he has been resting every since and now is his time to bring home the bacon.
RECAP:
Wayne Odesnik 1.44 over Danai Udomchoke
Juan Monaco 1.23 over Edouard Roger-Vasselin
Ivo Karlovic 1.74 over Arnaud Clement
Dudi Sela 1.60 over Nicolas Lapentti
Samuel Querrey 1.28 over Stefan Koubek
Jurgen Melzer 1.24 over Diego Hartfield
Thomas Johansson 1.41 over Nicolas Massu
Juan Martin Del Potro 1.39 over Nicolas Mahut
Radek Stepanek 1.08 over Carlos Berlocq
Ivan Ljubicic 1.33 over Kristof Vliegen
Fabrice Santoro 1.36 over Albert Montanes
Xavier Malisse 1.66 over Kristian Pless
David Ferrer 1.21 over Florian Mayer
David Nalbandian 1.13 over Ivan Navarro-Pastor
Agustin Calleri 1.54 over Andreas Seppi
Andy Roddick over Justin Gimelstob
Don't forget that I am posting all of these for tracking purposes and to show the accuray of this new system. Lets see how things go today.
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